Report
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• Aug. 26, 2024Energy mix projections
- Oil and natural gas remain the largest energy sources.
- Electricity use grows in all sectors, with generation from solar and wind growing the fastest.
- Coal is displaced by lower-emission sources, including both renewables and natural gas.
- Commercial transportation and industrial feedstocks drive continued demand for oil.
Report
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• Aug. 26, 20242050 insights
Oil and natural gas remain the largest energy sources, while lower-carbon energy will meet more of the world’s needs.
- The biggest shift will be the rise of renewables and the decline in coal.
Global energy demand by fuel
Primary energy- Quadrillion Btu
*Electricity and hydrogen are secondary energies derived from the primary energies shown.
End use energy demand
Quadrillion Btu
The energy mix varies by the end-use sectors.
- Electricity grows in all sectors. Electrification of industrial equipment and vehicles can improve their efficiency, and modern buildings around the world use electricity for heating, cooling, and convenient appliances.
- Oil and natural gas remain essential for industry, serving as both a source of high heat needed for manufacturing and a feedstock for chemical production.
- Oil also remains significant in transportation, even as electricity and biofuels gain share. Liquids fuels are energy-dense, which is critical for commercial transportation modes such as aviation, marine, and heavy trucking.
End use power generation mix
Renewables grow in share of electricity generation while natural gas continues to contribute ~20%.
Oil demand (excluding biofuels)
Million barrels per day
Natural gas demand
Billion cubic feet per day
Commercial transport and chemicals drive oil demand while industrial activity and electricity generation drive demand for natural gas.
Global energy mix
Quadrillion Btu
Source (see reference list): 2023 IEA World Energy Outlook; IPCC: AR6 Scenarios Database hosted by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) release 1.0 average.
IPCC C3: "Likely Below 2°C" scenarios
While the future energy mix has many potential outcomes, all credible scenarios require the full suite of energy sources to meet projected global demand.
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Cautionary statement
The Global Outlook includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates of both historical levels and projections of challenging topics such as energy demand, supply, and trends through 2050 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from many external sources including the International Energy Agency. Separate from ExxonMobil’s analysis, we discuss a number of third-party scenarios such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Likely Below 2°C and the International Energy Agency scenarios. Third-party scenarios discussed in this report reflect the modeling assumptions and outputs of their respective authors, not ExxonMobil, and their use and inclusion herein is not an endorsement by ExxonMobil of their results, likelihood or probability. Work on the Outlook and report was conducted during 2023 and 2024. The report contains forward looking statements, including projections, targets, expectations, estimates and assumptions of future behaviors. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the growth of energy demand and supply, the impact of new technologies, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy, emissions and plans to reduce emissions) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, the ability to scale new technologies on a cost-effective basis, unexpected technological developments, the development of new supply sources, changes in law or government policy, political events, demographic changes and migration patterns, trade patterns, the development and enforcement of global, regional or national mandates, changes in consumer preferences, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. The Outlook was published in August 2024. ExxonMobil assumes no duty to update these statements or materials as of any future date, and neither future distribution of this material nor the continued availability of this material in archive form on our website should be deemed to constitute an update or re-affirmation of this material as of any future date. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.