Energy demand drivers

  • Affordable and reliable energy fuels economic development and modern living standards.
  • Large energy disparity still exists between developed and developing countries.
  • Growing energy consumption supports economic expansion, enabling longer, more productive lives for the growing global population.

More than 4 billion people live below modern standards for life expectancy, education, and income

U.N. Human Development Index
2022 Index

Image More than 4 billion people live below modern standards for life expectancy, education, and income
Source (see reference list): U.N. Human Development Reports, EIA, ExxonMobil analysis

Energy improves quality of life.

  • Rising energy use fuels higher incomes that enable people to own homes, purchase labor-saving appliances, travel, and obtain needed medical services.
  • The United Nations Human Development Index is a measure of average quality of life by country, based on life expectancy, education, and income.
  • Consumption of 50 million British thermal units (MMBTU) per person is the threshold needed to materially move the human development indicators; however, today, more than 4 billion people live in countries below the “modern energy minimum.”

Population

Image Population

 OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of more affluent democracies with market-based economies that promotes economic growth. 

GDP

Image GDP
OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of more affluent democracies with market-based economies that promotes economic growth. 

Purchasing power per person

Image Purchasing power per person
OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of more affluent democracies with market-based economies that promotes economic growth. 

By 2050, population is expected to grow by nearly 2 billion people as GDP doubles.

  • Developing countries’ income doubles to $25,000 but remains well below developed-country levels.

Energy per capita

Image Energy per capita

Energy use per person grows in developing countries, driven by economic expansion.

  • Developed countries continue to see efficiency gains, which enables continued economic growth with less energy.

Global energy demand to grow 15% by 2050

Global energy demand
Quadrillion Btu

Image Global energy demand to grow 15% by 2050
Source (see reference list): Smil, Energy Transitions (1900-1960), 2024 ExxonMobil Global Outlook (1970-2050)

Population and economic growth drive global energy demand to increase by 15%.

  • >10% reduction in energy demand in developed countries from efficiency gains is offset by >25% increase in energy demand in developing countries.

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