Say, what's your outlook?

Global energy use will grow 15% by 2050 to support expanding prosperity in the developing world.
Global carbon emissions meanwhile will be 25% lower at mid-century thanks to efficiency and lower-emissions technologies.
The world will require all current energy sources in the 2050 energy mix.

Chris Birdsall

Director, Energy & Economics

Article

3 min read

• Oct. 11, 2024

What’s your view of the future? Sunny and optimistic? Dour and depressed? A little of both? (Personally, I’m pretty hopeful.)

Our outlook on life is often tied to our view of the future – for our families, communities, countries, and the world at large.

ExxonMobil has an outlook, too.

Or, should I say, we have the ExxonMobil Global Outlook. We published our latest edition recently, looking out to the year 2050. We hope you’ll check it out.

In our case, the Global Outlook isn’t an accounting of our corporate mood.

It’s our objective projection of where we see the world heading – our best view of what the global landscape will look like a few decades from now, as opposed to what we might hope to see.

And by the way, it’s pretty similar to what you would find in the International Energy Agency’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which is IEA’s projection of the future global energy system, based on current policy settings.

We use our Outlook projections – about demographic, economic, energy and political trends – to inform our business planning. Because we’re not inclined to invest our shareholders’ money based on sentiment or wishful thinking.

So, what are our big energy-related takeaways about the world in 2050?

Our Top 5 Outlook projections and observations, in a nutshell:

All current energy types will remain in the 2050 energy mix.
Renewables will grow the fastest; in fact, the share of wind and solar will more than quadruple.
Coal’s place in the global energy mix will decline the most, coming in at less than half the combined contribution of renewables and nuclear.
Under any credible third-party scenario, oil and natural gas will remain essential to the global economy.
Lower-carbon technology needs policy support to grow rapidly but ultimately must be supported by market forces.

There’s a lot to extrapolate from those points, and the next several decades will be fascinating to see how close we and others are to hitting the mark.

Remember, we don’t have a crystal ball, but we do have a lot of experience and a deep understanding of the complex global energy system.

You should know our Outlook contains a lot more than just those five points listed above.

Global energy use overall is expected to grow 15% by 2050, for instance. Virtually all of that increased energy use will translate into expanding prosperity in the developing world.

That’s a profoundly good thing, since half the world still lives far below modern standards of living.

At the same time, global carbon emissions will be 25% lower, thanks to energy efficiency and more renewables and other lower-emissions technologies. In 2030, global carbon emissions will start to fall even as the global economy grows. That’s the first time those two things will happen in concert.

Also a very good thing.

More energy. Less coal. More people with access to clean cooking fuels and electricity. Fewer emissions and less poverty. That’s the world we see in 2050.

And that’s why I’m an optimist.

Chris Birdsall is director for economics and energy for Corporate Strategic Planning at ExxonMobil.